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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."